Hovrever, the assassination will probably oblige Pakistan's leaders to review Liaquat's Kashmir policy. capable of preventing public pressure from getting,out of hand. Approved For Release 2000/08/PAZ 10l lA000500060014-4 Approved For Release 200~ UUMM SO1011A000500060014-4 The 1 eaders of both countries appear genuinely shocked by the assassination and anxious to avoid trouble, and are probably. # See NIE.41, "Probable Developments in the Kashmir Dispute to the End of 1951, published 1 September 195,1. is likely deliberately to initiate hostilities over Kashmir prior to the end of 1951. The assassination does not affect our present estimate that neither Pakistan nor India.
Finally, despite the initial popular reaction, the use of violence as a political weapon may serve to encourage extremists. The absence of an established line of succession encourages rivalry within the ruling group. Nazimuddin is a relatively colorless though capable East Pakistan poli- tician who appears to have been chosen as a symbol of national unity and as a neutral chairman neither he nor amy of his colleagues appear to possess Liaquat's high degree of personal vigor and political prestige. Nevertheless, the government is likely to be less firm and less powerful than it was under Liaquat. spiracy of last spring appears to have been effectively crushed. HR 10.2 DATE: ~IREVIEWERi_O18557 Approved For Release 9 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000500060014-4 Approved For ReleaseL2 00/08 1011 A000500060014-4 tribal areas in the North West Frontier Province from which the assassin came, the government will probably be able to contain them. CHANGED TO I TS S(J) lq~C~` NEXT RtVIEW DATE: AUTH. Although there is some danger of disorders in the traditionally turbulent eewr~eEw~n~ NO CHANGE IN CLASS. The group of uoslem League leaders which Liaquat headed occupies a dominant position in Palci ctani politic:, has maintained a strong grip on the army and on the press and radio, and appears to be dealing efficiently with the situation. The popular reaction to the murder has been one of shock and revulsion. There is unlikely to be any Immediate threat to the stability of the regime. The Premiership has been assumed by the Governor. On 16 October Prime Llinister Liaquat Ali Khan was assassinated by a man now officially described as an Afghan national. w UIUM 1ULT" In" %W 18 October 1951 SUBJECT: SL-.17 TILE CUlfEN OUTLOOK IN PAKISTAN (Draft for IAC Representatives) The Assassination of Liaguat Ali Khan 1.
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